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[1000NL] - Is the river a easy shove?

Calvin Jiang
January 6, 2010 9:07:13 AM EST

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Villain solid reg, views me as same. Easy river shove?

5/10 6max 4 handed

Hero (BTN) $995.00
Villain (SB) $990.00

Hero is dealt: A7

1 fold, Hero raises to $35, Villain raises to $105, 1 fold, Hero calls $70

Flop ($220): T3A

Villain bets $150, Hero calls $150

Turn ($520): 6

Villain checks, Hero checks

River ($520): 9

Villain bets $260, Hero...
Anthony Martino
- 494 posts
January 6, 2010 9:23:47 AM EST

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The pot after Villian bets the river is $780. Villian has already put $515 of his stack in, so he has $475 remaining.

If you shove, the pot becomes $1,255. He has to call $475 to win that pot, giving him 2.64 to 1 on his money. So he only needs to believe his hand is a winner 27% of the time for a call to be correct.

Do you really expect him to fold to you on the river after putting in more than half his stack with those odds? If he was chasing the flush he just got there (his check on the turn could indicate this)

If he has an Ace it's likely with a better kicker than your 7, given his reraise out of position preflop (although you raised the button, so it's not impossible for him to repop you with a weaker Ace, but two of those......A3 and A6, both outdrew you)

If he was betting the Ten and can't beat your Ace, you're unlikely to get paid off. So I think we only get action from hands that beat us by shoving the river.
Anthony Martino
- 494 posts
January 6, 2010 9:24:46 AM EST

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Or do you shove, villian calls and flips over A5 and you win a big pot? Thinly veiled brag post? :P
Calvin Jiang
January 6, 2010 9:29:17 AM EST

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I'll wait for a few more responses b4 replying.
Calvin Jiang
January 6, 2010 9:45:58 AM EST

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anthony wrote...
Or do you shove, villian calls and flips over A5 and you win a big pot? Thinly veiled brag post? :P
its not this though
Jeremy Cerka
January 6, 2010 10:32:35 AM EST

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i think a shove here is a terrible play. you are only going to get action by hands that beat you. his bet OTF looks like a set trying to push off a draw hand. he doesnt' think you have the draw and is value betting the river.
Roseann Schiferl
January 6, 2010 11:45:28 AM EST

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i agree
Mike Canu
- 12 posts
January 6, 2010 12:27:39 PM EST

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I just call here cause there are very few hands that you are beating that are going to call. Most likely a call is only a hand that has you beat.
Calvin Jiang
January 6, 2010 1:45:03 PM EST

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six, toro, advent, care to chime in b4 i post my thoughts?
Michael Santora
- 5 posts
January 6, 2010 2:16:30 PM EST

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Calvinzorr wrote...
six, toro, advent, care to chime in b4 i post my thoughts?

Lol, I'm folding. But I'm not half the player you are, so you go ahead. I guess the play is to get him off the winning hand, but I couldn't do it.
Rene Castillo
January 6, 2010 2:18:03 PM EST

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Can't say that I totally understand a shove here, unless you have a really strong read that hell fold or that hes defensebetting weak. He has announced his commitment to the hand with his bet on the river, and you only beat a bluff here. Now if you think he's really capable of laying it down after all he put in, then thats a hell of a play. But thats a big leap there, and you probably end up seeing him turn over a flush himself or the crying call. Im interested to see how this played out.
Dan L.
January 6, 2010 3:07:10 PM EST

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Easy river shove? Hell No! Nothing easy about it. A push is quite a play but it could work. I'm thinking he does not have the flush. I put him on AK AQ, You could represent the flush and push. If he has AK Aq he will most likely fold given he is a solid regular. How did it work out?
Anthony Martino
- 494 posts
January 6, 2010 4:12:59 PM EST

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SamAdamsDan wrote...
Easy river shove? Hell No! Nothing easy about it. A push is quite a play but it could work. I'm thinking he does not have the flush. I put him on AK AQ, You could represent the flush and push. If he has AK Aq he will most likely fold given he is a solid regular. How did it work out?

He'll fold getting more than 2.6 to 1 after putting in more than half his stack if he has AK or AQ?

I don't know that many solid regulars that would do that....
Jeremy Cerka
January 6, 2010 4:16:36 PM EST

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no solid reg would lay that down getting those kind of odds with AK or AQ
Calvin Jiang
January 6, 2010 7:44:34 PM EST

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I was thinking villain range is A9/AQ/AJ. I'm almost 100% sure he bets turn with any flush draw/AK, and with 99 and 78 he bets closer to $400 on river. I think he bets that with A9 too.

For those wondering, villain never has flopped set/2pair because of turn checks (although those are eliminated from our range too).

I think our perceived shoving range has villains range crushed here. Flush/A9/T9/99/78. And obviously I'm never value shoving worse (than villains range). This is pretty key because this means only way he can call me is if he puts me on total air.

And for those who doesn't think a solid reg is able to fold here, I would expect any half decent reg who thinks in terms of ranges and not just ZOMG I HAZ TPTK/TPGK..... ARRR IN should be able to fold AK and weaker. Hes hardly pot committed at all, he still has 50bbs ON THE RIVER, which mean his equity is set.

I think another factor is because of the stack sizing on river, in villains eyes, it looks like I'm expecting a call from him... and you know the old saying.... do the opposite of whatever you're opponent wants you to do.

Thoughts/comments on my analysis appreciated.
Calvin Jiang
January 6, 2010 7:52:26 PM EST

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Tryin2BPro wrote...
no solid reg would lay that down getting those kind of odds with AK or AQ

quite the exact opposite of this statement
Troy M
- 11 posts
January 6, 2010 8:48:36 PM EST

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Fold or 4-bet pre IMO. As played, if he has AxKs or even AxQs, I doubt he's ever folding to a shove, and even if he doesn't have either of those spades, he's only got like $480 behind...
Troy M
- 11 posts
January 6, 2010 8:53:35 PM EST

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Also not sure what makes AK so different from AQ that he checks one on the turn but not the other. Maybe I just don't understand the dynamics involved, but having AQ here rather than AK only adds one more hand that beats villain. If anything, having AQ trades one obvious reason to bet with AK (value from AQ) for one small but still significant reason to bet with AQ (bluff out other combos of AQ to take down plenty of dead money).
Rob Maxwell
January 6, 2010 11:21:30 PM EST

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No, I do not think this hand is an easy shove. I would have bet big on the Turn instead of checking to take the pot down then. I want to see what he has then with 6 cards and not be Rivered. Villain should fold a drawing hand. AK, AQ, AJ or a set--Villain would raise or call and you lose anyway.
Rusty Shackleford
January 7, 2010 12:13:02 AM EST

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I guess I have a few questions first...

Do you have a lot of experience with villain? I think you're expecting a lot from him if you think he can fold off AK/AQ with good odds. Also, if you have shown down anything metagame that he's seen, it makes it less likely he'll fold.

You have the range at A9/AQ/AK. What about JJ-KK? I can see this line from those hands too, unless you have very low c-bet flop stats on him. Particularly if you think he knows you pretty well and thinks he can get you to fold a weak A OTR.
Troy M
- 11 posts
January 7, 2010 2:22:49 AM EST

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ribbybruno wrote...
No, I do not think this hand is an easy shove. I would have bet big on the Turn instead of checking to take the pot down then.

Leading out on the turn is awwwwful. Considering that these two have history with each other, then we either have the best hand or we're crushed. The former scenario is quite likely, in which case chasing them out would be a mistake, but the good portion of villain's range is very unlikely to fold to a turn bet the way the action's played out.
Troy M
- 11 posts
January 7, 2010 2:26:01 AM EST

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sixandfour wrote...

You have the range at A9/AQ/AK. What about JJ-KK? I can see this line from those hands too, unless you have very low c-bet flop stats on him.

Personally, I doubt they even C-bet that entire range on the flop, especially if the villain would have a spade to go with that pair because of card removal. For a hand like KsKx, this flop is really bad to bet for any purpose.
Dan L.
January 7, 2010 2:31:35 AM EST

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Calvinzorr wrote...

Tryin2BPro wrote...
no solid reg would lay that down getting those kind of odds with AK or AQ

quite the exact opposite of this statement
Anthony Martino
- 494 posts
January 7, 2010 3:14:55 AM EST

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Well, I wouldn't be folding tptk with 2.6 to 1 odds on the river. I understand what you're saying Calvin, as far as making Villian think we want the call here, the whole metagame of it. I just think that the pot size and remaining stacks dictate he doesn't fold here most of the time.
Calvin Jiang
January 7, 2010 5:36:25 AM EST

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sixandfour wrote...

I guess I have a few questions first...

Do you have a lot of experience with villain? I think you're expecting a lot from him if you think he can fold off AK/AQ with good odds. Also, if you have shown down anything metagame that he's seen, it makes it less likely he'll fold.

You have the range at A9/AQ/AK. What about JJ-KK? I can see this line from those hands too, unless you have very low c-bet flop stats on him. Particularly if you think he knows you pretty well and thinks he can get you to fold a weak A OTR.

I've played with villain enough to know hes one of the better regs, but we dont have a agreesive history. That said, I dont think he expects me to spew vs him. In this spot, its not that hard of a fold because his hand turned into basically a bluff catcher.

Villain just joined the table, but few hands earlier before he joined I lost two buy ins. First hand was I had AK in the SB, BTN min opened to $20, I flatted, BB 3bet to $90, BTN called, I 4bet to $300, SB shoved with QJs and outflopped me. Few hands later, I opened on BTN with KQs, BB 3bet me, I 4bet him, he shoved, I called, and lost vs AK. Not sure if our villain was observing the table, but I doubt it. We're all regs and somewhat familiar with eachother, and I dont know anyone who observes a table for a orbit or two before joining.

I think if he was turning KK-JJ into a bluff here, he would have bet more on river, his current betsizing looks likes thin value. Or maybe he wants me to think that...

adventTM wrote...

sixandfour wrote...

You have the range at A9/AQ/AK. What about JJ-KK? I can see this line from those hands too, unless you have very low c-bet flop stats on him.

Personally, I doubt they even C-bet that entire range on the flop, especially if the villain would have a spade to go with that pair because of card removal. For a hand like KsKx, this flop is really bad to bet for any purpose.

If he doesnt cbet KK he has no idea where hes at in the hand, is he gonna just c/c me one, two, or 3 streets?

anthony wrote...
Well, I wouldn't be folding tptk with 2.6 to 1 odds on the river. I understand what you're saying Calvin, as far as making Villian think we want the call here, the whole metagame of it. I just think that the pot size and remaining stacks dictate he doesn't fold here most of the time.

If you were villain on the river what do you do with AJ/AQ? What shoving range do you put me on?

ribbybruno wrote...
No, I do not think this hand is an easy shove. I would have bet big on the Turn instead of checking to take the pot down then. I want to see what he has then with 6 cards and not be Rivered. Villain should fold a drawing hand. AK, AQ, AJ or a set--Villain would raise or call and you lose anyway.

What Troy said. And villain isnt going for a c/r on turn with AK/set, he has no reason to beleive I would bet the turn.