June 6, 2010 2:33:11 AM EDT
For those of you that would call and see a flop:
That's fine... provided 2 things:
1.) You're willing to fold when you miss, and
2.) You're sure you'll get paid off when you win to make up for the times you don't.
The problem that this situ invariably creates with most players is that they don't just see a flop. That's the logic going in, sure, but by the time the hand is over, they often make a mistake and put more money in behind, either by bluffing or calling off chips without a hand. If you are talented postflop (and by that I don't mean having the balls to bluff or make plays, as most people think of when I say "playing well postflop"; but the ability to make accurate reads and assessments of villain(s) play and act properly and accordingly), then this line is okay provided the implied odds are sufficient.
That's where this spot is tricky. You're improving your hand about 30% of the time on the flop. For calling to be profitable, you have to get paid enough after the fact to justify the initial investment. That means that, as you only hit one out of 3.3 times, you have to on average get paid 3.3x the amount you put in preflop when you called. As you only have 4x that amount to begin with, you have to be virtually assured stacks are going in to be +EV; and as villain doesn't even have you covered, it's even less a margin.
So if you really must see a flop, by all means; but it's a leak better plugged by getting them in and taking down pots or getting out of the way if you don't beat villain's range.
A
