Forums » Hold Em Strategy

• Anthony Martino

  

  • 494 posts
   

  November 29, 2010 2:37:37 PM EST

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  Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
  
  BTN: $6.06
  SB: $1.93
  Hero (BB): $5.00
  UTG: $2.46
  UTG+1: $1.93
  UTG+2: $2.07
  MP1: $11.32
  MP2: $9.85
  CO: $32.32
  
  Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with 5 A
  4 folds, MP2 raises to $0.10, 2 folds, SB calls $0.08, Hero calls $0.05
  
  Flop: ($0.30) 7 A 8 (3 players)
  SB checks, Hero bets $0.15, MP2 calls $0.15, SB folds
  
  Turn: ($0.60) 6 (2 players)
  Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40
  
  River: ($1.40) 2 (2 players)
  Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25
  
  
  
  My thought process:
  
  preflop:  Villians minraise in LP leads me to believe he most likely sucks at poker. With the SB coming along I'm willing to see a flop getting 5:1
  
  flop:  Well, I hit my pair, which is good.  But man do I have kicker problems.  Still, I probably have the best hand here, so I'll make a standard lead since there aren't a lot of draws to concern myself with.  Villian just calls, so it's doubtful he's on a strong ace here.
  
  turn:  That improves my hand slightly, since I now have an open-ended straight draw.  Still, I don't want to play a big pot with my relatively weak hand, so I'll check.  Reduces my losses when I'm beat and increases my profit when an opponent tries to bluff me or thinks they're value-betting assuming I don't have the Ace. 
  
  Villian makes a decent sized bet and I come along.
  
  river:  I check, opting for pot-control and hoping if villian is bluffing he'll continue to do so, as the river card changes nothing (i.e. if I was beat I lose, if I was ahead I'm still ahead).  Villian makes a pretty large bet, which doesn't make a ton of sense given the way the hands played out.
  
  Since I checked the turn and river, he has no reason to believe I'm strong enough to call a big bet.  So it looks more like a "don't call me, get out!" wager than anything.  And if your opponent makes it clear what he wants you to do.......do the opposite.  So I call.
  
  
  Anyone take a different approach here? 
  
  
• Calvin Jiang

  
   

  November 30, 2010 3:01:54 AM EST

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  Obv not familiar with dynamics at micros, but river call is v bad without better read on villain. No clue about the math, but villain has to be bluffing like what ~40% for your call to be break even? My math may be completely off, so I'd be nice if someone who actually knows how to do it correct me.
• Anthony Martino

  

  • 494 posts
   

  November 30, 2010 9:18:33 AM EST

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  I'm a station
  
  
  Final Pot: $3.90
  Hero shows 5 A (a pair of Aces)
  MP2 shows 3 3 (a pair of Threes)
  Hero wins $3.64
  (Rake: $0.26)
  
  
• Michael Santora

  

  • 5 posts
   

  November 30, 2010 9:57:07 AM EST

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  Calvinzorr wrote...

  Obv not familiar with dynamics at micros, but river call is v bad without better read on villain. No clue about the math, but villain has to be bluffing like what ~40% for your call to be break even? My math may be completely off, so I'd be nice if someone who actually knows how to do it correct me.

  It's costing you $1.25 to make $2.65 so you're getting 2.12 to 1 on your call.  So you need to win about 32% of the time.  68/32 = 2.12
  
  x = win %, y = loss %
  x+y = 100
  y/x = 2.12 or y = 2.12x
  Solving for x, substitute equation 2 into equation 1 so
  x + 2.12x = 100 or
  3.12x = 100 so
  x = 32.05
  
• Ronin1085 .

  

  • 417 posts
   

  November 30, 2010 10:13:56 AM EST

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  Toro just hurt my brain.
  
  LOL
• Michael Santora

  

  • 5 posts
   

  November 30, 2010 10:19:32 AM EST

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  Ronin1085 wrote...

  Toro just hurt my brain.
  
  LOL

  
  What about your horse?
• Ronin1085 .

  

  • 417 posts
   

  November 30, 2010 11:16:01 AM EST

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  Toro wrote...

  Ronin1085 wrote...

  Toro just hurt my brain.
  
  LOL

  
  What about your horse?

  
  Had to put him down and get a new horse LOL