October 27, 2009 10:54:00 AM EDT
I don't want to get into the drama, but I think absent a read this river call is spewy. It will work some of the time, but not the 33% of the time it needs to. Now AFTER we see this hand, we can pick him off in the future knowing he can turn 66 into a bluff here in addition to draws, and knowing that his huge river bets are usually bluffs. Before then though, it's all guesswork.
He could easily have A4/A3 here I think given our read of him pre-flop, or 43s, 53s. No, it's very unlikely he has AJ/A5/55/JJ/AA here, but 54s/53s/A3/A4/A2 are ALL in his range. We're also making quite a leap here without any post flop reads to think that a player who is SUPER weak/passive pre-flop is suddenly a pot bet river bluffer. Sure, it's possible, but without any reads you're playing a VERY volatile guessing game IMO. I'm not a big fan of making high variance plays in MTTs, and this IMO is the definition of a hero call without additional info. Let someone else at the table be the hero and after you see this guy show down a river bluff here pick him off because then you'll have a read.
I think everything up until the river was fine, but you really have to be able to rationalize out that he's capable of bluffing here at least 1/3 of the time, and without more info on him it's thin at best, bad at worst.